Stay On Target

The NBA Draft is coming up on Thursday, and that has the potential to be the first clue into what next year's Vipers roster will look like.

The Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen writes that the Rockets target potential ahead of roster needs.

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"At 14, we're trying to identify what's the best talent available," vice president of player personnel Gersson Rosas said. "We try to stay away from just picking for need or picking based on what the market says. We want to identify the best talent. We don't want to leave talent on the table after we pick.

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Just as they are not motivated to fit a player into their roster, the Rockets seem likely to value "upside," even if that means greater risk. Prospects such as Henry, Whiteside, Babbitt and George might be more long-term projects, but the Rockets are more likely to evaluate "what" a player will become rather than "when" he will reach that potential.

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"We value upside strongly," Rosas said. "We're also looking at things we feel translate a little bit stronger, whether it's skill set or physical, athletic tools guys have. There is some upside you feel the risk might be too high. It might hurt the chance of a player fully developing. I wouldn't say it's all upside. It's a combination of both.

"The way we look at this decision is not a one-year window. We look at it as a three- or four-year window. We use the example of Aaron Brooks. We got killed in the media. We got killed in the public. Teams were like, 'What are you doing?' We had four point guards — Rafer (Alston), Steve (Francis,) John Lucas and Mike James. We felt, 'This guy (Brooks) has special talent, speed combined with finishing and shooting.' His overall offensive upside was too special to pass."

It is possible the Rockets won't feel the need to move up in the draft.

"For us, it would be a productive night if at 14 we're able to identify a guy who has not only the talent but the ability to develop at a high level," Rosas said. "Overall, the talent in this draft is strong. Up front, it's pretty deep. We feel we're going to get a player we're excited about. This draft, compared to past drafts, has a little more depth."

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Notice the key word in that last snippet. Comes up twice – "develop."

If you're drafting near the top, yeah, you can probably get someone who can step right in and be star (not always true – see the Los Angeles Clippers' draft picks and Greg Oden for examples). Another example is Hasheem Thabeet, who was assigned to Dakota for seasoning. There's nothing wrong with that. It's probably beneficial to the player.

When selecting in the middle of the first round, the odds of getting a ready player who fits exactly what you need is unlikely. And, honestly, if you're relying on the draft to turn you from lottery team to major contender, you've probably got bigger problems. One player is rarely a difference maker, especially right away.

The Rockets could try to find a big man at pick #14 and force him into the rotation under the hope that it'll work out, but that seems to me more likely to bust than work out, and they seem to recognize that.

The Rockets had so much success developing players with the Vipers this past season, they have every reason to go after a high-upside player, who, if he's not good enough to an impact player in the NBA right away, can get experience playing Rockets basketball in a lower pressure environment. Same system, different location, better experience than riding the pine (ask Darko Milicic what that's like).

Will the Rockets select someone with the sole idea of assigning him to the Vipers? Doubtful. They might end up with the next Chase Budinger, after all. With that said, the Rockets certainly have more options in the draft than most other teams (except maybe the Spurs, Thunder, Celtics/Bobcats and Mavericks) because of the hybrid affiliation.

I am eager to see what next year's affiliation will bring and how many more teams go hybrid. We might get our first clue into that during the draft based on how teams outside the Top 10 select players and also what kind of value is assigned to second round picks (you might remember last year Rockets GM Daryl Morey bought three second round picks, one turned out to be Budinger and one turned out to be Jermaine Taylor).