The Maine Equation

I was just thinking about that Morris Almond and T.J. Cummings trade to from Springfield to Maine again. And this is something I probably should've thought of sooner, and will probably talk about during tomorrow's broadcast.

When adding two players, you subtract two. Okay, no duh, right?

Here's what Maine did (all stats pre-trade):

Add:
Morris Almond - 26.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 40.8 mpg
T.J. Cummings - 15.1 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 35.3 mpg

Subtract:
Tony Bobbitt - 12.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 25.2 mpg
Noel Felix - 9.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 21.8 mpg

So, on first glance, Maine added 20.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Pretty significant... Until you correct for minutes played. Almond and Cummings played 29.1 minutes per game more than Bobbitt and Felix. That almost erases an entire player, which could easily makeup for the difference in points and rebounds.

The proof is in the statistics per 48 minutes (see! this is why I use those).

Almond - 31.5 pp48, 6.1 rp48
Cummings - 20.5pp48, 12.0 rp48

Bobbitt - 23.2pp48, 5.0 rp48
Felix - 20.3 pp48, 12.8 rp48

So, it now appears that Maine actually added 8.5 points and 0.3 rebounds per game.

Now, don't get me wrong, adding 8.5 points per game is pretty significant. Maine was averaging 101.3 points per game. If they suddenly start averaging 109.8 points per for the rest of the season, as long as they can play defense (unlike in Tulsa yesterday), they're going to win most of their games.

Not so fast, though. For Almond and Cummings to average those minutes, other players have to lose minutes (or Almond and Cummings' minutes go down). Which means someone else is going to contribute less, but more, there's that human element of hot and cold stretches and having less opportunity to shoot out of it or the mental aspects of less opportunity to prove yourself.

What I'm saying is, sure, it was a significant trade for Maine, but I'm just not convinced it was that significant.

I guess we'll find out this weekend.

Saturday at 8:00 p.m.

Sunday at 5:00 p.m.

State Farm Arena.

See you there!